Lilliestam J, Sharpe S, Worthington B (2025)
Publication Language: English
Publication Type: Other publication type
Publication year: 2025
Publisher: S-curve Economics
Edited Volumes: CARBON BUDGETS ARE NOT ENOUGH: THE CASE FOR TRANSITION MILESTONES
2
SUMMARY
• Carbon budgets can support emissions reduction by focusing political attention,
providing a framework for planning, and enabling accountability over time. These
are important advantages compared to ad hoc policymaking without a governance
framework.
• However, there are risks in making near-term (as well as long-term) emissions
reduction the measure of success in a governance framework. Not all actions that
reduce emissions in the short-term make progress towards the elimination of
emissions in the long-term. Governments that focus on reducing emissions by
increasing the efficiency of fossil fuel systems and deploying lower emission
technologies risk wasting time, wasting investment, and storing up problems for
the future.
• Eliminating anthropogenic emissions is the only plausible way to reduce climate
risk, and only the development of zero emission systems can achieve that
outcome. Making this the measure of success in a governance framework would
strongly align short-term focus with long-term goals. We propose transition
milestones for this purpose: interim targets for the market share of zero emission
solutions in each of the greenhouse-gas emitting sectors, accompanied by
qualitative descriptions of conditions necessary to complete each stage of the
transition.
• Transition milestones can be set to reflect a country’s circumstances, strengths,
and strategic objectives. Since most countries account for a very small share of
global emissions, influencing global economic change is at least as important as
eliminating national emissions, for reducing climate change risks.
• Transition milestones have their own limitations and risks, and will not direct
attention towards all opportunities for useful emissions reduction. There may be
advantages in using a combined framework, with transition milestones alongside
carbon budgets.
APA:
Lilliestam, J., Sharpe, S., & Worthington, B. (2025). Carbon budgets are not enough – the case for transition milestones. S-curve Economics.
MLA:
Lilliestam, Johan, Simon Sharpe, and Bryony Worthington. Carbon budgets are not enough – the case for transition milestones. S-curve Economics, 2025.
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