Ries L, Layrisse F, Pompe J, Lugmair N, Kurtz J (2026)
Publication Type: Journal article
Publication year: 2026
Book Volume: 227
Article Number: 124605
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124605
The implementation of circular strategies in manufacturing companies can decouple value creation from resource use by improving product utilization, extending product lifetimes, and closing material flows. Digital technologies are discussed as key enablers of circular strategies, yet uncertainty regarding their future developments inhibits large-scale implementation. To address this gap, we conducted a real-time online Delphi study to empirically forecast the mainstream evolution of digitally enabled circular strategies in circular manufacturing ecosystems by 2035. We developed eleven future projections, which were evaluated by 102 circularity and digital technology experts regarding their expected probability of occurrence, economic gains, and positive ecological impact. The findings reveal a staged transformation. We show that early progress depends on what we term ambidextrous circularity, where manufacturers and ecosystems balance exploiting existing strengths while exploring more transformative digitally enabled circular strategies. Beyond this entry stage, a strategic inflection point requires explicit alignment between digital innovation and circular intent, tempering the assumed environmental superiority of higher-order R-strategies. Finally, ecosystems can tackle systemic change. In this context, we propose a service-dominant logic of value creation in circular ecosystem research, positioning the consumer at the heart of this process as co-creators with producers.
APA:
Ries, L., Layrisse, F., Pompe, J., Lugmair, N., & Kurtz, J. (2026). The future of digitally enabled circular strategies in manufacturing: A Delphi study. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124605
MLA:
Ries, Lena, et al. "The future of digitally enabled circular strategies in manufacturing: A Delphi study." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 227 (2026).
BibTeX: Download